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30 Aug 2011 22:06

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Politics: Forecasting model with perfect record predicts Obama reelection

  • In 1981, a professor at American University developed a forecasting model for presidential elections. Based on thirteen different metrics, or “keys,” the model has never been wrong. In 1992, it spotted George H.W. Bush’s vulnerability when everybody assumed he was invincible; that prediction was instrumental in convincing Bill Clinton to enter the race. Which is to say, were it not for Allan Lichtman and his “Thirteen Keys,” we may have never had a President Clinton. Now, Lichtman has applied his model to 2012. Here’s how Obama stacks up:
  • Reelection Working in the president’s favor are his significant domestic policy accomplishments, a lack of scandals, a weak Republican field, generally successful foreign policy, no significant third party candidates, no primary challenger and a lack of sustained social unrest.
  • Defeat So why might Obama have reason to worry? Well, the long-term economy, a lack of personal charisma, the results of the last House election and, if it comes to fruition, an upcoming recession could all spell trouble for his reelection campaign.
  • » Conclusion: “Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman says. The President wins 9 out of the 13 keys, two more than needed. Now, there’s lots of room for debate here–for example, is it really true that Obama lacks personal charisma? Lichtman’s rationale here is that the president has “lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election,” but that’s debatable. And do we know for certain that Rick Perry won’t prove to be a dazzling candidate, charming voters across the nation? Furthermore, a lot can happen between now and 2012: a surprise rebound of the economy, an unforeseen international crisis, or some other black swan event. But as it stands, this metric is some of the best reelection news Obama’s had in months. (Photo: Reuters/Jim Young). source
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

30 Aug 2011 21:01

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Politics: Senator answers the question no one’s been asking

  • NO Jim DeMint won’t run for president in 2016 source
  • » Thanks for clearing that up for us, Jim. We were on pins and needles.
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

29 Aug 2011 17:42

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Politics: House Republicans plot major deregulatory push

  • Deregulation = jobs: A memo obtained by ShortFormBlog contains details of an upcoming Republican effort to push massive deregulatory legislation through the House of Representatives, in hopes of unshackling “costly bureaucratic handcuffs” faced by businesses. The letter, sent today by Eric Cantor to the House Republican caucus, details the “Top 10 Job-Destroying Regulations,” and how Republicans plan to address them. “By pursuing a steady repeal of job-destroying regulations,” Cantor wrote, “we can help lift the cloud of uncertainty hanging over small and large employers alike, empowering them to hire more workers.” Some key proposals:
  • Weakened emission limits  The TRAIN (Transparency in Regulatory Analysis of Impacts on the Nation) Act, along with the EPA Regulatory Relief Act, would delay implementation of EPA standards intended to limit air pollution.
  • Limiting union power The Protecting Jobs From Government Interference Act would limit the National Labor Relations Board’s power, rescinding its ability to influence relocation of manufacturing plants.
  • Farm dust for all The Farm Dust Regulation Prevention Act would, as expected, restrict the federal government’s ability to regulate farm dust, allowing it to do so only within state and local regulations. source
  • » In keeping with Republican orthodoxy, Cantor also proposes to two tax cuts (one for government contractors, another for small businesses), and the repeal of unspecified provisions of the Affordable Care Act. What do you all think of Cantor’s plan? Read the whole thing at the link. (AP Photo)
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

26 Aug 2011 14:57

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Politics: What do Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani have in common?

  • 26% Rick Perry’s average support in GOP primary polls since announcing his candidacy; he’s now in the lead
  • 29% Rudy Giuliani’s average support in GOP primary polls at this point in 2007; he was then in the lead source
  • » Just a reminder of how difficult it is to predict the outcomes of presidential primaries  six months before Iowa. It’s also instructive to recall another Southern Republican who, four years ago, was seen as a savior by the GOP establishment. He announced his candidacy late in the game, and immediately vaulted to the top of the polls. That candidate was Fred Thompson.
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

25 Aug 2011 23:58

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Politics: New poll brings bad news for Republicans

  • -6 Obama’s net favorability, as of this month
  • -7 The Democratic Party’s favorability
  • -25 The Republican Party’s favorability source
  • » Why no love for the GOP? Over the last six months, everybody–Obama, Democrats, and Republicans–has seen a net drop in their approval ratings, but Republicans are clearly the most hated of the bunch. This is probably due to a combination of factors: Paul Ryan’s budget proposal, Scott Walker’s anti-union antics in Wisconsin, and the GOP’s handling of the debt ceiling debate were all high-profile issues that attracted (mostly) negative attention to the GOP. Whatever the cause, there’s one thing we can glean from these results: Democrats seem to be out-messaging Republicans in 2011. Whether or not this can carry Obama to reelection amidst a horrible economy remains to be seen.
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

25 Aug 2011 23:23

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World: Gaddafi as a wizard

  • He looked like a wizard recovering from an evening of drinking who had wandered into the picture by mistake.
  • The Washington Post’s Alexandra Petri • In a comedic psuedo-obituary to Muammar Gaddafi’s career. Petri also notes that Gaddafi often “looked like he’d shot a couch and was wearing it on his back as a trophy, after an intense struggle in which the couch nearly prevailed.” There’s more to the article than just ribbing the dictator’s physical appearance, of course, but those descriptors are just too rich to pass up. source
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

25 Aug 2011 22:44

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U.S.: Rape victim forced to apologize to rapist

  • One nightmare after another: In 2008, a seventh grade special-ed student in Missouri told school administrators that she’d been raped by one of her classmates. Rather than fulfilling its legal obligation to report the incident to authorities, the school accused the girl of lying, made her write and hand-deliver an apology to her accused rapist, expelled her for the rest of the year, and referred her to juvenile authorities for filing a “false report.” When she returned to school in 2010, the same boy raped her again. School administrators once again brushed the girl aside, but a medical examination backed up her allegations, and the boy pled guilty in juvenile court. Now, the Republic School District, along with four specifically-named members of the administration, is being sued. There really are no words for something like this. source
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink
 

24 Aug 2011 20:45

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Tech: “You can’t connect the dots looking forward. You can only connect them looking backwards”

  • Here’s Steve Jobs in 2005, passing on some wisdom to newly minted Stanford grads. It’s a very nonconventional college commencement speech, a fact that becomes obvious as soon as Jobs says that dropping out of college was one of the best decisions he ever made. He also explains how a spontaneous decision to drop in on a calligraphy class helped shape the future of home computing, and his comments about retroactively connecting the dots of our past decisions is one of the more insightful things we’ve heard in a while.  source
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

24 Aug 2011 00:37

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Culture: “Girls Gone Wild” founder accused of assault (again)

  • Noted sleazeball Joe Francis is in trouble with the law again. This time, the “Girls Gone Wild” founder and accused rapist is charged with false imprisonment and assault, and could serve five years in jail if convicted (it wouldn’t be his first time). The allegation: Three women entered Francis’ limo, believing he was giving them a ride to their car. When it became clear that they were actually headed to Francis’ home, they tried to get out, but Francis’ bodyguard, posing as a sheriff, prevented them from leaving. Once they arrived at the gated compound, Francis tried to pull one women away from her friends; when she resisted, he grabbed her by the throat and started slamming her head against a tile floor. This seems to be Francis’ modus operandi; two years ago, he was caught on video grabbing a woman by the hair and dragging her through a night club after she accidentally spilled a drink on him. (Photo by Jason Merritt/Getty Images)  source
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

23 Aug 2011 22:20

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U.S.: Libyan rebel nabs Gaddafi’s hat

  • This rebel made out like a bandit, scoring Muammar Gaddafi’s hat during a raid of the likely-soon-to-be-deposed leader’s compound. A pretty good memento, if you ask us. The interview gets bittersweet midway through, when the rebel starts recounting the deaths of his friends. The whole thing is worth watching, if only to hear a first-hand account of the rebel experience.  source
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink
 
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