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06 Feb 2012 14:11


Politics: Obama opens up big lead over Romney in general election polling

  • 9 point lead for Obama over Romney in the latest WaPo/ABC News Poll source
  • » It’s the largest lead either candidate has held over one another since The Washington Post/ABC News started polling Romney-Obama match-ups in April of last year. It’s also a huge reversal from just a month ago, when Romney led Obama by one. Why the change? Well, it could be the (slowly) improving economy, or the insanity of the Republican primary taking its toll on all the Republicans, or Romney saying that he’s “not concerned about the very poor” on CNN last week. Or maybe, people are just fickle, and Romney will be twelve points ahead of Obama next week.

23 Oct 2011 16:33


Politics, U.S., World: Bachmann: Iraq should repay money used in US invasion

  • I believe that Iraq should reimburse the United States fully for the amount of money that we have spent to liberate these people. They are not a poor country.
  • Rep. Michele Bachmann during an interview with CBS News’ “Face the Nation” Sunday morning.• Bachmann added that Iraq was a “wealthy country” that would be “subject to dominance by Iran and their influence in the region” once American troops withdraw by the end of the year. source

30 Aug 2011 22:06


Politics: Forecasting model with perfect record predicts Obama reelection

  • In 1981, a professor at American University developed a forecasting model for presidential elections. Based on thirteen different metrics, or “keys,” the model has never been wrong. In 1992, it spotted George H.W. Bush’s vulnerability when everybody assumed he was invincible; that prediction was instrumental in convincing Bill Clinton to enter the race. Which is to say, were it not for Allan Lichtman and his “Thirteen Keys,” we may have never had a President Clinton. Now, Lichtman has applied his model to 2012. Here’s how Obama stacks up:
  • Reelection Working in the president’s favor are his significant domestic policy accomplishments, a lack of scandals, a weak Republican field, generally successful foreign policy, no significant third party candidates, no primary challenger and a lack of sustained social unrest.
  • Defeat So why might Obama have reason to worry? Well, the long-term economy, a lack of personal charisma, the results of the last House election and, if it comes to fruition, an upcoming recession could all spell trouble for his reelection campaign.
  • » Conclusion: “Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman says. The President wins 9 out of the 13 keys, two more than needed. Now, there’s lots of room for debate here–for example, is it really true that Obama lacks personal charisma? Lichtman’s rationale here is that the president has “lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election,” but that’s debatable. And do we know for certain that Rick Perry won’t prove to be a dazzling candidate, charming voters across the nation? Furthermore, a lot can happen between now and 2012: a surprise rebound of the economy, an unforeseen international crisis, or some other black swan event. But as it stands, this metric is some of the best reelection news Obama’s had in months. (Photo: Reuters/Jim Young). source

26 Aug 2011 14:57


Politics: What do Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani have in common?

  • 26% Rick Perry’s average support in GOP primary polls since announcing his candidacy; he’s now in the lead
  • 29% Rudy Giuliani’s average support in GOP primary polls at this point in 2007; he was then in the lead source
  • » Just a reminder of how difficult it is to predict the outcomes of presidential primaries  six months before Iowa. It’s also instructive to recall another Southern Republican who, four years ago, was seen as a savior by the GOP establishment. He announced his candidacy late in the game, and immediately vaulted to the top of the polls. That candidate was Fred Thompson.