• A lot of rumors are going around about Jay Leno’s fate today. TMZ is reporting that Jay Leno – who we think is as funny as watching Dennis Miller analyze an NFL game – could get his old time slot back, at a severe cost to Conan O’Brien, who won the gig over five years ago, only to see NBC pull the trap door from under him with their Leno antics. So, how did we get here?

2004: Conan’s early confidence bet

• what? NBC, in a show of confidence for a guy they’d shown little love to in the ’90s, gives Conan O’Brien “The Tonight Show” slot – five years in advance.
• why? Because the last time they handed out “The Tonight Show” slot, they also screwed it up. Heir apparent David Letterman went to CBS. He still hates Leno.
• later … Later, Jimmy Fallon was tapped for the “Late Night” slot vacated by Conan. “Saturday Night Live” creator Lorne Michaels wanted him since ’04. source

November 2008: Uh, we’re not so sure …

• Jay’s new time Instead of ditching Leno like everyone expected, NBC announced months before the switch-over that they were keeping Leno on in a 10 p.m. slot, effectively stealing Conan O’Brien’s thunder.
• Why? Economics.A late-night talk show is cheaper to produce than a high-quality drama like “E.R.” or “Law and Order,” so NBC execs thought they could ride a wave of low ratings through the recession. source

September 2009: The reviews! The reviews!

• ‘The Jay Leno Show’ is of course not the ‘brand-new hour of comedy’ its promos claim; it is brand-old to the bone.
• Slate reviewer Troy Patterson • On Jay Leno’s first night. Like most reviewers, he disliked “The Jay Leno Show” due to the fact that it was exactly the same routine as his boring schtick on “The Tonight Show.” Leno got lucky, though, by grilling Kanye West immediately after his VMAs incident, which created pretty much the best moment on the show, ever. It was all downhill from there. source
  

Late 2009: That didn’t work out so well …

• 18 million viewers watched the first episode of “Leno”

• 53% the decline in Leno’s ratings on the fourth night – that was fast source
• 1.5 the ratings threshold Leno was given for the show to remain profitable
• 1.6 Leno’s average ratings since starting the show in September – which NBC execs expected

Late 2009: Residual effects

• D-F the grade local affiliates gave Leno as a lead-in to their local news broadcasts; it had a direct effect on their ratings source
• 47% drop in Conan’s ratings a month after Leno took over the 10 p.m. slot; he regularly gets trumped by Letterman now source

• Oh, and show-producers were pissed, too. One show in particular, “Southland,” nearly died as a result of “The Jay Leno Show,” due to the number of slots the show took up. (It later found a home on TNT, and goes back on the air this month.) Show creator John Wells, who also worked on “E.R.,” said at the time his show was canceled, “I wish NBC and Jay Leno well; personally, he’s a very nice guy, but I hope he falls flat on his face and we get five dramas back.” Ouch! (But we totally agree with him.) source

Early 2010: So, what’s next?

• olympics On February 1, the Winter Olympics hit NBC, completely blowing up their schedule and conveniently giving them a chance to give low-rated Leno a break.
• later? Word on the street is that Leno will be losing his spot and going after the local news; Conan would likely come after, then Fallon, and maybe Carson Daly at like 3 or so. source

• This may be the funniest that Sarah Palin has ever been. You know, besides the political speeches that weren’t meant to be.

• It’s the coolest thing ever, Charlie Brown! Last night, Conan took his amazing ability to smash pumpkins on TV, creating one of the greatest pieces of Halloween television history. source

• Last thing I remember I was enjoying the play with Mrs. Lincoln and the next thing I knew I was in bed being served cookies and juice.
• Conan O’Brien • In a statement published after he was unable to finish taping The Tonight Show on Friday. The star hit his head while trying to perform a stunt on the show and was taken to the hospital. So instead of a first-run show, we got a repeat. But Conan will be OK, reportedly. • source

• This says more about the state of journalism than anything else could. A comedian just beat the crap out of a guy who regularly tackles heady issues on CNN. Great. Way to make our profession look good, Wolf. And way to rock it, Andy.source

• Wow, who knew Sarah Palin was really a beat poet in need of a better interpreter? Fortunately, our man William Shatner is up to the job. Thanks Conan!source

• We have now reached a point where Conan’s awesomeness is now equal with the awesomeness of Super Mario World. Woot.source

• 7.1 Conan’s rating last night, well above the average source

• Newsweek’s Josh Alston sez he’s doing well. “Conan tears himself to shreds in such a deft manner, that it’s easy to forget that self-deprecation is actually a super-annoying personality trait.”

• New York Daily News critic David Hinckley noted how “Conan made it subtly clear that the new kid in town will be a little naughtier and that for better or worse, “Tonight” is now his ride.”

• David Letterman was perfectly goofy about the whole thing. “I’m still here,” he said “I knocked off another competitor.” He also said his mother noted how he didn’t get the “Tonight Show” gig again.

• The Letterman people sent this pickle to my office in 1993. Now I’m passing it on to you. Whenever you leave, which won’t be for a long time, make sure you pass it on to the next sap.
• Conan O’Brien • In a letter to Jimmy Fallon that came with a giant three-foot plastic pickle, which has been handed down to generations of “Late Night” hosts. Fallon succeeds O’Brien on Monday. • source