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13 Dec 2011 21:15

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Politics: Newt stumbles, Paul and Santorum gain

  • Newtiny on the bounty? This is the second poll this week indicating a slip in Newt Gingrich’s support. The winners are Ron Paul and Rick Santorum (and, to a lesser degree, Jon Huntsman), all of whom saw gains since the beginning of the month. Gingrich’s favorability dropped 19 points in the last week, and on the question of who has “stronger values,” Romney beats him by 21 points. Meanwhile, the oft-forgotten Gary Johnson–who, it’s worth saying, is a libertarian who holds many of the same positions as Paul–is still stuck at 1%. source
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

13 Dec 2011 20:51

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Politics: This 1995 profile of Newt Gingrich is a fun read

  • I would really love to spend six months to a year in the Amazon basin, just being able to spend the day watching tree sloths.
  • Newt Gingrich • In a 1995 Vanity Fair profile. There are lots of fun tidbits in this piece. Even back then, Gingrich was thinking of a presidential run, but his then-wife Marrianne didn’t approve. “I don’t want him to be president,” she said, “and I don’t think he should be” (he eventually divorced her). Newt often describes himself oddly journalistic terms, as if he’s a pundit writing an op-ed column, and this was true in 1995 as well.  He says here that he’s “a mythical person,” “a psychodrama living out a fantasy,” and that “what makes me unusually intense is that I personalize the pain of war, the pain of children being killed.” source
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

13 Dec 2011 17:45

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Politics: Is Newt Gingrich beginning to fade?

  • 37.7% Newt’s support from Nov. 30-Dec. 3; that is, in the couple of days before Herman Cain withdrew from the race
  • 24.4% Newt’s support–in the same poll–from Dec. 3-Dec. 7, the first few days after Cain withdrew source
  • » What’s going on here? Actually, we’re not sure. Common wisdom says that Cain’s support flocked to Gingrich after the former dropped out of the race (or, sorry, “suspended” his campaign). So how come the same University of Iowa poll–taken in the state over a weeklong period–shows a drastic fall in the former House Speaker’s support after Cain’s exit? Of course, the standard “this is just one poll” disclaimer still applies; this could just be an anomaly. But a 13.3% decline in one week is significant, and outside the poll’s margin of error. Given the boom-bust tendency of the GOP field this year, we can’t help but wonder if this is the beginning of the end for Newt (note: it’s rather unusual for a polling house to make available the intra-week trends of a single poll; much respect to Reuters, who co-sponsored this poll, for doing so).
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

07 Dec 2011 19:00

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Politics: Guess we’ve gotta remark on this new Rick Perry ad

  • Rick Perry, jockeying for the anti-gay vote: This ad, called “Strong,” has the Texas governor promising to end the Obama administration’s “war on religion” and touting his commitment to Christianity. “Something’s wrong in this country when gays can serve openly in the military,” Perry says, “but our kids can’t openly celebrate Christmas, or pray in school.” It’s unclear what policies President Obama has put in place to deny kids the right to openly celebrate Christmas. As of this writing, the video has 675 likes and 26,650 dislikes. source
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

07 Dec 2011 17:51

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Politics: Gingrich and Pelosi, reachin’ across the aisle

  • 418 bills co-sponsored by Nancy Pelosi and Newt Gingrich source
  • » Bipartisan support: For twelve years, Pelosi and Gingrich served together in the House of Representatives, and supported a total of 418 bills together. That’s an average of 34.83 pieces of legislation per year that enjoyed Pelosi/Gingrich support (at least, that’s what our team of math experts tells us; we didn’t have time to check their work). One such bill was the Global Warming Prevention act of 1989, the memory of which probably won’t do Gingrich any favors in the Republican primary (relatedly, neither will this). It should be noted, however, that much of this was non-contentious legislation, such as one honoring the 50th anniversary of the National Heart, Lung and Blood instituted.
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

05 Dec 2011 15:09

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Politics: Trump-moderated debate gets first RSVP

  • YES Santorum will attend the Donald Trump debate source
  • » That makes it a Santorum-Gingrich affair. No one else has RSVP’d yet; Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman have both declined the invite, and Karl Rove, who has a bit of influence in Republican circles, has discouraged all the other candidates from attending. Gingrich said he’ll be going “just for the entertainment value,” which is, well, strange.
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

05 Dec 2011 14:29

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Politics: Pelosi claims to have “a thousand pages” of dirt on Gingrich

  • I know a lot about [Newt Gingrich]. I served on the investigative committee that investigated him, four of us locked in a room in an undisclosed location for a year. A thousand pages of his stuff.
  • Nancy Pelosi • Giddy at the prospect of Gingrich being the Republican nominee for president. She said she’ll give more details “when the time’s right” which, we can only assume, means “if Gingrich wins the nomination.” source
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink
 

05 Dec 2011 14:15

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Politics: Gingrich leads in Iowa…but so what?

  • 8 points Newt Gingrich’s  (average) lead in Iowa, one month before the caucuses
  • 73% historical win record (in Iowa) of presidential candidates who lead one month out. However…
  • 40% historical win record of candidates, like Gingrich, who only lead by single-digits source
  • » The point here isn’t that Gingrich won’t win. It’s that that attempting to predict election results based on polls is tricky, and remains tricky even when you factor in historical precedent. To drive the point home even further: Ronald Reagan led in Iowa polls by about 9 points a month prior to the caucuses. He ended up losing (to his future VP, George H.W. Bush), but then ultimately came back to win the nomination, making his Iowa loss more or less irrelevant. Every election has its own quirks and nuances; Gingrich is looking good in Iowa right now, no doubt, but so was Herman Cain before him, and Rick Perry before him, and Michele Bachmann before him.
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

21 Nov 2011 14:14

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Politics: The pun we were all waiting for

  • This is, in fact, the official name of Gingrich’s New Hampshire effort. Hopefully, “Mitt Hampshire” will follow, maybe with a banner image that’s a little less self-parodical. source
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

16 Nov 2011 13:33

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Politics: Cain: Presidents don’t need to know about the world and stuff

  • I’m not supposed to know anything about foreign policy.
  • Herman Cain • Giving a novel take on the requirements–or lack thereof–for presidential candidates. Okay, seriously? Did he actually say this? Did he mumble? Or does Herman Cain actually not understand what the job of the President of the United States is? This is indefensible.  source
Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink
 
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