Read a little. Learn a lot. • Tightly-written news, views and stuff • Follow us on TwitterBe a Facebook FanTumble us!

05 Dec 2011 14:15

tags

Politics: Gingrich leads in Iowa…but so what?

  • 8 points Newt Gingrich’s  (average) lead in Iowa, one month before the caucuses
  • 73% historical win record (in Iowa) of presidential candidates who lead one month out. However…
  • 40% historical win record of candidates, like Gingrich, who only lead by single-digits source
  • » The point here isn’t that Gingrich won’t win. It’s that that attempting to predict election results based on polls is tricky, and remains tricky even when you factor in historical precedent. To drive the point home even further: Ronald Reagan led in Iowa polls by about 9 points a month prior to the caucuses. He ended up losing (to his future VP, George H.W. Bush), but then ultimately came back to win the nomination, making his Iowa loss more or less irrelevant. Every election has its own quirks and nuances; Gingrich is looking good in Iowa right now, no doubt, but so was Herman Cain before him, and Rick Perry before him, and Michele Bachmann before him.

28 Nov 2011 13:25

tags

Politics: Newt Gingrich’s favorite new word is “aggressive”

  • 6 times Gingrich uses the word “aggressive” in this YN interview source
  • » But what should we be aggressive about? Here’s the tally. Twice, Gingrich was describing how we should approach the war on drugs (“We ought to be much more aggressive about drug policy”); once, he was describing how the US went about supporting non-communist trade unions in Poland in the 1980s (“…we when we aggressively supported Solidarity”); and on three occasions, Newt was talking about US-Cuban relations (“I think we need a very aggressive model”). Oddly, he didn’t once utter the words “fundamental” or “profound,” although he did use another Gingrich fallback, “logical,” on two occasions, and busted out “totally” once.