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29 Feb 2012 01:30


Politics: Unsurprisingly, female voters like Romney more than Santorum–at least in Michigan

  • 1% margin by which Mitt Romney won the male vote tonight in Michigan
  • 5% margin by which Romney won the female vote source
  • » Why? Well, these statements in opposition to placing female soldiers on the front lines of battle may have had something to do with it. Or maybe it’s his opposition to abortion, or his opposition to contraception. Santorum may be aware of this deficit he faces: As Molly Ball at The Atlantic notes, “Santorum began his speech by thanking his mother, his wife, and his eldest daughter at length, emphasizing their professional bona fides. He seemed to be implicitly going out of his way to assure women he took a modern view of their place in the workplace and role in society.”

08 Feb 2012 01:53


Politics: Santorum won big tonight, yes. But there’s a catch…

  • yes…Rick Santorum swept tonight’s nominating contests, winning Colorado and Minnesota’s caucuses in addition to Missouri’s primary. He’s now won more states than Mitt Romney.
  • however…No delegates were awarded tonight, so these victories–as well as all victories to this point–are significant primarily from the standpoint of public perception and media narratives. source

31 Jan 2012 23:37


Politics: Not only is Newt Gingrich not quitting, he hasn’t even started fighting yet

  • I would define Newt’s head space as: ‘Now, this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.’
  • David Lane • A  conservative leader close to Gingrich. This quote is actually from before the primary, and Lane’s prediction was born out in Gingrich’s speech tonight, wherein the former Speaker pledged to plow forward despite having lost Florida tonight. The article’s author, Alexander Burns, adds that “Gingrich has made a career out of upending conventional wisdom and ignoring the establishment view that he should go to the corner and shut up.” A long, protracted primary probably won’t be any help to the eventual nominee, but it’ll sure be fun for political nerds like us.  source

19 Jan 2012 21:53


Politics: DebateSC FanFic: Newt Kills The King

  • As John King is in the middle of a question about Gingrich’s ex wife, the former House Speaker’s rage slowly builds, until suddenly, a crazed look strikes his face. He leaps into action, barreling forward through podium and charging across the stage. The former Representative from Georgia leaps off the podium, pulls a switchblade from his sock in whilst mid-air, and plunges the knife into John King’s chest. As the audience sits in stunned silence, he picks up the fallen moderator’s mic, wipes the sweat off his brow, and says, “The King is dead.” The crowd goes wild, and Gingrich goes on to win South Carolina by 30 points.

27 Dec 2011 22:28


Politics: Rick Perry sues Virginia GOP over ballot exclusion

  • SUE ’em if they don’t let you on the ballot! source
  • » That’s Rick Perry’s calculus: A total of five Republicans won’t appear (also including Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman) on the ballot in Virginia’s presidential primary, having failed to collect the 10,000 signatures required by state law, but Rick Perry is the only one to react with a lawsuit (so far). He’s suing the Virginia Republican Party, and the state board of elections, claiming that the state’s signature requirements — in particular, the provision that bans out-of-state circulators from gathering signatures — are unconstitutionally restrictive. Of course, he’s seeking retroactive change in the law, one that would allow him to appear on Virginia’s March 6th ballot after all. We agree with Talking Points Memo that suing one’s own party, even at a statewide level, isn’t normally the best move for a presidential candidate, but then again, what does he have to lose?

20 Dec 2011 22:16


U.S.: Unemployment fell in majority of states last month

  • 43 states have seen a decrease in unemployment since October source
  • » As goes the country, so go the states: Or maybe it’s the other way around? Well, either way, figures released today by the Department of Labor show that unemployment, in addition to falling to its lowest level in two and a half years at the national level, also decreased on a state-by-state basis in all but seven states. This is promising, as it suggests that the uptick in employment is a nationwide trend, and not the result of, say, five or ten states doing abnormally well for one reason or another. Note: The usual disclaimers about the problems with how unemployment is calculated apply.

13 Dec 2011 21:15


Politics: Newt stumbles, Paul and Santorum gain

  • Newtiny on the bounty? This is the second poll this week indicating a slip in Newt Gingrich’s support. The winners are Ron Paul and Rick Santorum (and, to a lesser degree, Jon Huntsman), all of whom saw gains since the beginning of the month. Gingrich’s favorability dropped 19 points in the last week, and on the question of who has “stronger values,” Romney beats him by 21 points. Meanwhile, the oft-forgotten Gary Johnson–who, it’s worth saying, is a libertarian who holds many of the same positions as Paul–is still stuck at 1%. source

13 Dec 2011 17:45


Politics: Is Newt Gingrich beginning to fade?

  • 37.7% Newt’s support from Nov. 30-Dec. 3; that is, in the couple of days before Herman Cain withdrew from the race
  • 24.4% Newt’s support–in the same poll–from Dec. 3-Dec. 7, the first few days after Cain withdrew source
  • » What’s going on here? Actually, we’re not sure. Common wisdom says that Cain’s support flocked to Gingrich after the former dropped out of the race (or, sorry, “suspended” his campaign). So how come the same University of Iowa poll–taken in the state over a weeklong period–shows a drastic fall in the former House Speaker’s support after Cain’s exit? Of course, the standard “this is just one poll” disclaimer still applies; this could just be an anomaly. But a 13.3% decline in one week is significant, and outside the poll’s margin of error. Given the boom-bust tendency of the GOP field this year, we can’t help but wonder if this is the beginning of the end for Newt (note: it’s rather unusual for a polling house to make available the intra-week trends of a single poll; much respect to Reuters, who co-sponsored this poll, for doing so).

05 Dec 2011 15:09


Politics: Trump-moderated debate gets first RSVP

  • YES Santorum will attend the Donald Trump debate source
  • » That makes it a Santorum-Gingrich affair. No one else has RSVP’d yet; Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman have both declined the invite, and Karl Rove, who has a bit of influence in Republican circles, has discouraged all the other candidates from attending. Gingrich said he’ll be going “just for the entertainment value,” which is, well, strange.

05 Dec 2011 14:29


Politics: Pelosi claims to have “a thousand pages” of dirt on Gingrich

  • I know a lot about [Newt Gingrich]. I served on the investigative committee that investigated him, four of us locked in a room in an undisclosed location for a year. A thousand pages of his stuff.
  • Nancy Pelosi • Giddy at the prospect of Gingrich being the Republican nominee for president. She said she’ll give more details “when the time’s right” which, we can only assume, means “if Gingrich wins the nomination.” source