“Alice” had a good first week, and hasn’t done bad, but it’s not epic. Tim Burton’s latest big-budget hit, which also uses the spectacular 3D technology of “Avatar” (though not as well), looked like it was on the way to a similarly epic run for a couple of weeks. But while it did good this week, it’s now clear that it’ll just be a big hit, not an epic one.
“Alice” in her third weekend
45%dip in box-office receipts in weekend three source
$116M“Alice in Wonderland’s” box-office take after its first weekend
$77Mwhere “Avatar” stood after its snow-marred first weekend
$212M“Avatar” after weekend two; it was a huge hit during the week, even
$352Mafter its third weekend, it was over halfway to “Titanic’s” $600 million
Why the diverging paths?
» Did the snow help “Avatar” build staying power? Director James Cameron miraculously had a movie with a similar box-office run to his previous film, “Titanic.” Part of that may have been due to a huge snowstorm which slammed the East Coast in its first weekend, keeping demand for the movie high when the snow was eventually cleared.
» Blow up, then fade: One of the major differences between “Alice” and “Avatar” is that “Alice” had a more traditional path to success, one that most blockbusters have followed in the last decade. The much-hyped movie with the big first weekend often fades quickly. Some exceptions exist – “The Dark Knight,” for example, came out of the gate quicker than “Avatar” did and had some staying power, but faded by its fifth week. The secret to an “Avatar”-style run? Slow and steady wins the race.
Avatar is looking good in its third weekend, dipping just 9% from last week. Not bad for a movie that had a relatively modest launch for a blockbuster. The secret to its success? The same as “Titanic” – staying power. But even if James Cameron’s latest can’t keep up, his trump card might be an even bigger deal.
Titanic’s track record:
$1.8billion total lifetime run – in 1998 money (holy crap)
$200 millionbudget for what was expected to be a huge bomb
$600 millionin domestic grosses – in 1998 money! Holy crap!
$28.6MTitanic’s first-weekend box office take – decent, not spectacular
$35.5MTitanic’s second-weekend take – it went up by an astonishing 23.8%
$36MTitanic’s biggest week, which didn’t come until week six, by the way source
How Avatar’s catching up:
$1billion worldwide already – in just three weeks!
$280 millionthe most likely budget for “Avatar”; totals have varied as widely as $250 million and $500 million
$150 millionhas been spent on marketing the movie alone, which Fox is taking on the cost of
$77MAvatar’s first-weekend box office take; it was hurt by snow
$75MAvatar’s second-weekend take – down only 1.8%
$352MAvatar’s domestic gross after a $68 million third weekend source
The 3D wildcard:
$3-5the markup the 3D adds to ticket prices source
Big investment Cameron’s film took years to build because of the fact that the technology had to come first, both for filming and in the theater. Cameron paid to build the technology himself along with a bunch of investors.
Residual effect Fortunately for Cameron, he can sell the cameras to other filmmakers. “Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D” has already used it. Steven Spielberg and Peter Jackson’s “The Adventures of Tintin” soon will.
Cash for conversions Even better for studios, the technology is relatively easy to build into older films. For $30 million, a popular hit like, say, “Titanic,” can have a brand new life in 3D. It’s like a money machine for Hollywood. source
Will it beat “Titanic”?
Before inflation, probably. After, it depends. It’s probably not likely that the movie will hold up sixteen straight weeks at No. 1 like Titanic, but it’ll have a good shot of holding on tight thanks to the fact that it’s going to be in IMAX (where it’s made $66 million already) for months. But at the very least, it’s looking like it has more staying power than “The Dark Knight,” the biggest hit of the naughts. Well, before “Avatar.”