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» That’s according to Nate Silver: Silver crunched the numbers and did the math, and the average non-incumbent winner of the New Hampshire primary wins roughly 39 percent of the vote. Silver has Romney getting right around 39 percent. “If Mitt Romney stays close to our forecast and gets about 39 percent of the vote in New Hampshire tonight, his performance will be highly typical for the winner of the primary,” Silver writes.

Posted by Ernie Smith • 0 Comments • Permalink

A very good point. We tend to forget that, as crazy as it sounds, some people’s idea of fun doesn’t involve reading about the debt limit, America’s credit rating, or parliamentary procedure in the United States Senate. source

Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

While Mr. Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination may not be exactly zero, they’re pretty close.
Nate Silver • Assessing various GOP candidates chances at getting the nomination. Silver contends that the current field of Republicans is “the most wide-open in the modern era on the GOP side,” with the favorite (Mitt Romney) unable to crack 30% odds. source

Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

Just as the conditions promising at least a pretty bad Democratic year have been with us for some time, the uncertainty has been with us all along as well, like a virus with an exceptionally long latency period; on Tuesday, we’ll see which of the polls it has infected.
FiveThirtyEight guy Nate Silver • Offering a key piece of final analysis that we should probably take into the elections today. While the polls have largely remained consistent about how many seats the Democrats will lose and the Republicans will gain, it’s good to keep at least a little bit of perspective no matter how you lean. Remember, back in 1994 the analysts were relatively consistent too, but in the end, the Republicans did way better than most of them expected – by a long shot. No matter the case, you should probably get out there and vote your heart out for both the ballot measures and the candidates – unless you live in DC and know the results of every election already. We’ll have lots of key results from our non-existent glass-enclosed nerve center at a late-night coffee shop in Dupont Circle tomorrow night. source

Posted by Ernie Smith • 0 Comments • Permalink

80% Republicans’ chances of winning back the House of Representatives, according to polling guru Nate Silver
18% chance that they’ll win the Senate source

Posted by Seth Millstein • 0 Comments • Permalink

However, it is a problem for Republicans that no actual Republican can approach the performance of the generic candidate, probably because the generic candidate is Rorschach blot that allows each respondent to create what amounts to their fantasy candidate.
FiveThirtyEight blogger Nate Silver • Making a very astute point based on early polling for the 2012 presidential election. Essentially, while a “generic” Republican candidate can handily beat Obama right now, according to a compilation of polls he put together, no flesh-and-blood candidate can actually get close to that mark right now. The closest is Mitt Romney, who is less than six points behind. Sarah Palin, however, would be a wash, as she trails Obama by 14.4 points. Granted, it’s still very early (as Silver notes), and a lot can change, but that’s a fairly interesting signifying point. source

Posted by Ernie Smith • 0 Comments • Permalink

10 Jan 2012 20:37