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10 Jan 2012 20:37


Politics: Mitt Romney might hit right around the average for New Hampshire winners

  • 39% the average percentage the NH primary winner gets source
  • » That’s according to Nate Silver: Silver crunched the numbers and did the math, and the average non-incumbent winner of the New Hampshire primary wins roughly 39 percent of the vote. Silver has Romney getting right around 39 percent. “If Mitt Romney stays close to our forecast and gets about 39 percent of the vote in New Hampshire tonight, his performance will be highly typical for the winner of the primary,” Silver writes.

25 Jul 2011 22:58


Politics: Nate sets us straight

  • A very good point. We tend to forget that, as crazy as it sounds, some people’s idea of fun doesn’t involve reading about the debt limit, America’s credit rating, or parliamentary procedure in the United States Senate. source

11 May 2011 20:16


Politics: Nate Silver: Trump literally has almost no shot

  • While Mr. Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination may not be exactly zero, they’re pretty close.
  • Nate Silver • Assessing various GOP candidates chances at getting the nomination. Silver contends that the current field of Republicans is “the most wide-open in the modern era on the GOP side,” with the favorite (Mitt Romney) unable to crack 30% odds. source

02 Nov 2010 01:22


Politics: Famous last words before heading into tomorrow’s midterms

  • Just as the conditions promising at least a pretty bad Democratic year have been with us for some time, the uncertainty has been with us all along as well, like a virus with an exceptionally long latency period; on Tuesday, we’ll see which of the polls it has infected.
  • FiveThirtyEight guy Nate Silver • Offering a key piece of final analysis that we should probably take into the elections today. While the polls have largely remained consistent about how many seats the Democrats will lose and the Republicans will gain, it’s good to keep at least a little bit of perspective no matter how you lean. Remember, back in 1994 the analysts were relatively consistent too, but in the end, the Republicans did way better than most of them expected – by a long shot. No matter the case, you should probably get out there and vote your heart out for both the ballot measures and the candidates – unless you live in DC and know the results of every election already. We’ll have lots of key results from our non-existent glass-enclosed nerve center at a late-night coffee shop in Dupont Circle tomorrow night. source

23 Oct 2010 23:17


Politics: Nate Silver confirms: Dems favored to lose House, keep Senate

  • 80% Republicans’ chances of winning back the House of Representatives, according to polling guru Nate Silver
  • 18% chance that they’ll win the Senate source

15 Apr 2010 10:52


Politics: Obama better watch out for “Generic Republican” in 2012

  • However, it is a problem for Republicans that no actual Republican can approach the performance of the generic candidate, probably because the generic candidate is Rorschach blot that allows each respondent to create what amounts to their fantasy candidate.
  • FiveThirtyEight blogger Nate Silver • Making a very astute point based on early polling for the 2012 presidential election. Essentially, while a “generic” Republican candidate can handily beat Obama right now, according to a compilation of polls he put together, no flesh-and-blood candidate can actually get close to that mark right now. The closest is Mitt Romney, who is less than six points behind. Sarah Palin, however, would be a wash, as she trails Obama by 14.4 points. Granted, it’s still very early (as Silver notes), and a lot can change, but that’s a fairly interesting signifying point. source