• A lot of rumors are going around about Jay Leno’s fate today. TMZ is reporting that Jay Leno – who we think is as funny as watching Dennis Miller analyze an NFL game – could get his old time slot back, at a severe cost to Conan O’Brien, who won the gig over five years ago, only to see NBC pull the trap door from under him with their Leno antics. So, how did we get here?

2004: Conan’s early confidence bet

• what? NBC, in a show of confidence for a guy they’d shown little love to in the ’90s, gives Conan O’Brien “The Tonight Show” slot – five years in advance.
• why? Because the last time they handed out “The Tonight Show” slot, they also screwed it up. Heir apparent David Letterman went to CBS. He still hates Leno.
• later … Later, Jimmy Fallon was tapped for the “Late Night” slot vacated by Conan. “Saturday Night Live” creator Lorne Michaels wanted him since ’04. source

November 2008: Uh, we’re not so sure …

• Jay’s new time Instead of ditching Leno like everyone expected, NBC announced months before the switch-over that they were keeping Leno on in a 10 p.m. slot, effectively stealing Conan O’Brien’s thunder.
• Why? Economics.A late-night talk show is cheaper to produce than a high-quality drama like “E.R.” or “Law and Order,” so NBC execs thought they could ride a wave of low ratings through the recession. source

September 2009: The reviews! The reviews!

• ‘The Jay Leno Show’ is of course not the ‘brand-new hour of comedy’ its promos claim; it is brand-old to the bone.
• Slate reviewer Troy Patterson • On Jay Leno’s first night. Like most reviewers, he disliked “The Jay Leno Show” due to the fact that it was exactly the same routine as his boring schtick on “The Tonight Show.” Leno got lucky, though, by grilling Kanye West immediately after his VMAs incident, which created pretty much the best moment on the show, ever. It was all downhill from there. source
  

Late 2009: That didn’t work out so well …

• 18 million viewers watched the first episode of “Leno”

• 53% the decline in Leno’s ratings on the fourth night – that was fast source
• 1.5 the ratings threshold Leno was given for the show to remain profitable
• 1.6 Leno’s average ratings since starting the show in September – which NBC execs expected

Late 2009: Residual effects

• D-F the grade local affiliates gave Leno as a lead-in to their local news broadcasts; it had a direct effect on their ratings source
• 47% drop in Conan’s ratings a month after Leno took over the 10 p.m. slot; he regularly gets trumped by Letterman now source

• Oh, and show-producers were pissed, too. One show in particular, “Southland,” nearly died as a result of “The Jay Leno Show,” due to the number of slots the show took up. (It later found a home on TNT, and goes back on the air this month.) Show creator John Wells, who also worked on “E.R.,” said at the time his show was canceled, “I wish NBC and Jay Leno well; personally, he’s a very nice guy, but I hope he falls flat on his face and we get five dramas back.” Ouch! (But we totally agree with him.) source

Early 2010: So, what’s next?

• olympics On February 1, the Winter Olympics hit NBC, completely blowing up their schedule and conveniently giving them a chance to give low-rated Leno a break.
• later? Word on the street is that Leno will be losing his spot and going after the local news; Conan would likely come after, then Fallon, and maybe Carson Daly at like 3 or so. source

• I’m disappointed that NBC no longer has the time periods available to support the kind of critically-acclaimed series that was for so many years, a hallmark of their success.
• “Southland” executive producer John Wells • On the cancellation of his show before a single episode of its second season had aired. Wells, who also produced “ER,” was screwed over by Jay Leno’s monopoly on most of the the good drama time slots. NBC may have just done permanent damage to its reputation with the Jay Leno experiment. • source