• 8 points Newt Gingrich’s  (average) lead in Iowa, one month before the caucuses
• 73% historical win record (in Iowa) of presidential candidates who lead one month out. However…
• 40% historical win record of candidates, like Gingrich, who only lead by single-digits source

• » The point here isn’t that Gingrich won’t win. It’s that that attempting to predict election results based on polls is tricky, and remains tricky even when you factor in historical precedent. To drive the point home even further: Ronald Reagan led in Iowa polls by about 9 points a month prior to the caucuses. He ended up losing (to his future VP, George H.W. Bush), but then ultimately came back to win the nomination, making his Iowa loss more or less irrelevant. Every election has its own quirks and nuances; Gingrich is looking good in Iowa right now, no doubt, but so was Herman Cain before him, and Rick Perry before him, and Michele Bachmann before him.

Posted by Seth Millstein • Permalink